The Great Don't Know Factor

That, folks, was the splash headline on the front page of the Daily Mail on May 1st 1997.

(My fellow anoraks can find it on page 179 of the 1997 Nuffield election study).

The suggestion was that the undecideds in the opinion polls could yet spring an election day surprise on Tony Blair. The McCain campaign has put out a memo pinning its hopes on something similar.

The US election is different from that in Britain in 1997. There is a similarity in that one side has had and executed a campaign strategy, while their opponents have often seemed to descend into acrimony and chaos in search of an argument.

But this is a closer election than that one, and a a two horse race with no incumbent. (Undecideds tend to break against the incumbent - as they have had plenty of time to be convinced by them: one can debate whether McCain, as the Republican candidate and a long serving national Senator has more incumbent-like features).

In truth, the stomach churning uncertainty of the final week is part of the wonder of democracy - how power is transferred peacefully through citizens casting their votes. Even so, perhaps some people knew in '97 even if Mr Paul Dacre did not. Read more...

The Great Don't Know Factor

That, folks, was the splash headline on the front page of the Daily Mail on May 1st 1997.

(My fellow anoraks can find it on page 179 of the 1997 Nuffield election study).

The suggestion was that the undecideds in the opinion polls could yet spring an election day surprise on Tony Blair. The McCain campaign has put out a memo pinning its hopes on something similar.

The US election is different from that in Britain in 1997. There is a similarity in that one side has had and executed a campaign strategy, while their opponents have often seemed to descend into acrimony and chaos in search of an argument.

But this is a closer election than that one, and a a two horse race with no incumbent. (Undecideds tend to break against the incumbent - as they have had plenty of time to be convinced by them: one can debate whether McCain, as the Republican candidate and a long serving national Senator has more incumbent-like features).

In truth, the stomach churning uncertainty of the final week is part of the wonder of democracy - how power is transferred peacefully through citizens casting their votes. Even so, perhaps some people knew in '97 even if Mr Paul Dacre did not. Read more...

Step back from barracking the BBC

Increasingly the hysteria about the Ross/Brand incident seems to be used as a rod to beat up on the BBC generally. However you feel about the way the two Radio 2 DJs behaved and I think Stuart White expressed thoughts on this extremely well on this blog, the general uproar should not be used as a cover to shake a stick at the BBC and start a campaign to reduce its license fee.
Most often we fail to recognise what an excellent thing it is to be able to watch an hour of excellent drama without constant mind-numbing stops for adverts, or to be able to see documentaries or news programmes with proper investigation involved.
Commercial television can rarely justify the budget for any programme that doesn't deliver the cash. That can lead to a lowest common denominator style of programming; an all day breakfast of reality shows and CSI.
Few countries are lucky to have quality television programming of the type that the BBC delivers. Try going abroad and watching TV and you quickly find out.
After a recent trip to the US, I knew I was home when I switched on the radio and managed to listen to three amazing BBC programmes in a row, that made me think about issues I didn't I cared about.
The Daily Mail among others loves to beat up the BBC about wasting taxpayers money, but as taxpayers let's recognise all the good quality programmes we do get from that license fee. Read more...

Step back from barracking the BBC

Increasingly the hysteria about the Ross/Brand incident seems to be used as a rod to beat up on the BBC generally. However you feel about the way the two Radio 2 DJs behaved and I think Stuart White expressed thoughts on this extremely well on this blog, the general uproar should not be used as a cover to shake a stick at the BBC and start a campaign to reduce its license fee.
Most often we fail to recognise what an excellent thing it is to be able to watch an hour of excellent drama without constant mind-numbing stops for adverts, or to be able to see documentaries or news programmes with proper investigation involved.
Commercial television can rarely justify the budget for any programme that doesn't deliver the cash. That can lead to a lowest common denominator style of programming; an all day breakfast of reality shows and CSI.
Few countries are lucky to have quality television programming of the type that the BBC delivers. Try going abroad and watching TV and you quickly find out.
After a recent trip to the US, I knew I was home when I switched on the radio and managed to listen to three amazing BBC programmes in a row, that made me think about issues I didn't I cared about.
The Daily Mail among others loves to beat up the BBC about wasting taxpayers money, but as taxpayers let's recognise all the good quality programmes we do get from that license fee. Read more...

North Carolina; Day 4: Moving the Goalposts

We may get to pick when the elections are, but once we have, the rules are fixed. Here, local party chiefs in Wake County have been making representations all week to the Board of Elections - and have managed to get the early vote hours extended, keeping the polls open an extra 4 hours today.

In Raleigh today, hoping to make use of the extra hours are Sarah Palin, and, on the historically black Campus of Shaw University, political comedian Chris Rock (an event which the British team - us - is running the Field Operation for...). Both events will be followed by marches to the early voting locations.

The four most reliable polls for North Carolina have the results: McCain +1, Obama +1, Tie, Tie. These mobilisation operations could be rucial. But judging by the early vote returns, it is easy to see why the Democrats were lobbying hardest for the longest early voting hours possible... Read more...

North Carolina; Day 4: Moving the Goalposts

We may get to pick when the elections are, but once we have, the rules are fixed. Here, local party chiefs in Wake County have been making representations all week to the Board of Elections - and have managed to get the early vote hours extended, keeping the polls open an extra 4 hours today.

In Raleigh today, hoping to make use of the extra hours are Sarah Palin, and, on the historically black Campus of Shaw University, political comedian Chris Rock (an event which the British team - us - is running the Field Operation for...). Both events will be followed by marches to the early voting locations.

The four most reliable polls for North Carolina have the results: McCain +1, Obama +1, Tie, Tie. These mobilisation operations could be rucial. But judging by the early vote returns, it is easy to see why the Democrats were lobbying hardest for the longest early voting hours possible... Read more...

Blair on Blair: world's eye view

A volunteer from Wake County called Blair had an interesting perspective on politics across the pond today - and her namesake in particular (you'll have to imagine this in Carolina drawl):

"Tony? He was my friend at first. But then he kinda weirded out, dontcha think?"

No comment, Blair. But I wonder if the British electorate agreed...

(If there were any questions as to her political judgement, they were surely answered by her assertion that it was "kneebucklingly cool" to have Brits joining the campaign. Quite) Read more...