Terrible Labour polling; Tory Euro wobble

The Sun's YouGov poll tomorrow has separate General Election and European Election polls.

While both are terrible for Labour, the differences between them are very striking.

The general election polling is good for the Conservatives, while a historic low for Labour.

Conservatives: 41% (-2)
Labour: 22% (-5)
LibDem: 19% (+1)
Others: 18%

But the European election polling is even more turbulent. It also raises the spectre that Labour could even finish in 4th place in June but also suggests that Douglas Hogg's moat and/or Norman Tebbit's call for abstentions may be resonating. The changes are against a poll just a week before.

Conservatives: 28% (-9)
Labour: 19% (-3)
Ukip: 19% (+12)
LibDem: ?
BNP 4% (-)
Green: ?
(Source: PoliticsHome and UK polling report. I will add the LibDem and Green shares once available).

UPDATE: PoliticalBetting has the Sun graphic with different figures to those being reported by PoliticsHome last night, and Ukip on 15% rather than 19%, up 8 rather than 12 points in the week.
Conservatives: 28%
Labour: 19%
LibDem: 19%
Ukip: 15%
Green: 6%
SNP/PC: 4%
BNP 3% (-1)
Other 1%

European elections are often unpredictable - with the Green surge to 15% in 1989 and Ukip's surge last time - and in current circumstances, anything might be possible.

Pollsters do not think they have any chance of predicting how the BNP will do. Partly, it is whether voters will admit to planning to vote BNP but it is also that the gap between no seats and four, five or six seats could be not very large. The poll suggests that anti-BNP campaigning remains important but there are dangers about the media - as well as politicians - talking up the BNP threat a great deal, and perhaps more than is merited.

Personally, in current circumstances, I would be fairly relieved to see the more respectable minor parties - especially the Greens, but also non-racist right-wing anti-politics parties like Ukip or Libertas (however much I disagree with them) doing well in a "protest election" if it meant the BNP did not surge.

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